The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-0, thanks in no small part to some helpful calls and non-calls from the officials. Despite playing some close contests thus far, the Chiefs are heavy favorites in Week 4 vs. the Los Angeles Chargers, who will hope that an ailing Justin Herbert (high ankle sprain) can help keep this game close.
See why my free Chiefs vs. Chargers predictions and NFL picks believe L.A.’s defense will keep the team afloat on Sunday, September 29.
Chiefs vs Chargers prediction
My best betChargers +7 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
One thing about the NFL is that the phrase “any given Sunday” really does apply week in and week out. This year has been no different, with underdogs of +5.5 or more having gone 14-2 against the spread with 10 outright wins.
That trend may continue on Sunday in this AFC West matchup.
One simple glance at this game may have many wondering how the Kansas City Chiefs would fail to cover by a touchdown with Justin Herbert suffering from a reaggravated high ankle sprain and with superstar safety Derwin James Jr. conveniently being suspended for one game after a questionable hit to Pat Freiermuth last week — a hit Freiermuth vouched for as not being dirty during the appeal call earlier this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers should still manage well enough on defense as they rank third in pass defense DVOA this year and sixth in run defense.
Rashee Rice (third in receptions, fourth in yards) has continued to build on his strong finish in the back half of last year, but the Chargers have managed to defend opposing WR1s to the sixth-worst efficiency by DVOA standards — largely a product of Kristian Fulton’s league-best yards allowed per snap through Week 3.
And while the Chiefs tend to win endlessly, they don’t really blow teams out. In their last nine regular season games, they have won by more than a touchdown just twice, and those games came against Jake Browning and Bailey Zappe. Even then, they won those games by just eight and 10 points, respectively.
Furthermore, they have beaten the Chargers by that much just once in the last three seasons and just three times in Patrick Mahomes’ 12 games since becoming starter.
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Chiefs vs Chargers same-game parlay
Chargers +7Rashee Rice Under 76.5 receiving yardsPatrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions
+475 at BetMGM
On top of the spread, we can incorporate a Rice Under to take advantage of his inflated market that has come as a result of his screaming hot start. Again, the Chargers’ have been great at disrupting the passing game both through excellent secondary play as well as through generating pressure up front.
Another easy place to get value is Mahomes’ interception prop. He threw one in 12 of 16 games last year (75%) and has thrown one in each of his first three games this year. On top of that, his market is much lower than usual this week at -120 compared to the -140 it was last week.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Chiefs vs Chargers odds
Chiefs vs Chargers live odds
Chiefs vs Chargers opening odds
- Spread: Kansas City -9.5 | Los Angeles +9.5
- Moneyline: Kansas City -400 | Los Angeles +320
- Over/Under: Over 39 | Under 39
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Chiefs vs Chargers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Chargers have started 1-0 ATS at home this year after going 3-5 last year.
- L.A. is one of eight teams that have still not gone Over this year.
- The Chiefs have only hit the team total Over in five of their last 19 games (-10.00 Units / -48% ROI)
